Villarreal Lose 2-3 on 1.16 xG as Deportivo Convert
Villarreal posted 1.16 xG, 62% possession and 16 shots yet lost 2-3 to Deportivo. Aubameyang scored and assisted twice; the home keeper finished at -1.71 goals prevented.
Published 5 Sept 20262 min read
Villarreal controlled the ball at Estadio de la Ceramica and still left with nothing. The hosts posted 1.16 expected goals to Deportivo's 0.81, held 62% possession and took 16 shots to eight — then lost 2-3 after Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang finished the night with a goal and two assists.
Key Numbers
Pass volume was lopsided: Villarreal 546 of 606 (90%), Deportivo 314 of 367 (86%). Final-third passing ran 85% (203/239) against 76% (52/68). Box touches: 34-18. Corners: 7-1. Big chances were level at 3-3.
xG on target flipped the picture. Villarreal 1.44 xGOT, Deportivo 1.29. The visitors put three of eight shots on target and scored three times. The home goalkeeper recorded zero saves against 1.29 xGOT faced and finished at -1.71 goals prevented. Deportivo's keeper made four saves and +0.44 goals prevented.
First-half xG was dead even at 0.39-0.39. Nicolas Pepe scored in the 19th from an Ayoze Perez assist. Luismi Cruz leveled in the 43rd from Aubameyang.
Tactical Reading
Both sides started 4-4-2. Villarreal's problem was not territory. Cross accuracy of 2 of 16 (13%) shows a team that reached the box and then failed to pick the right delivery. Deportivo won 44 duels to 37, made 37 clearances to 11 and 12 interceptions to eight.
The second half turned on two moments the xG model only partly captures. Adama Traore's own goal in the 76th minute put Villarreal 2-1 up. Zakaria Eddahchouri, on for Cruz, scored two minutes later from another Aubameyang assist. Aubameyang then scored himself in the 88th.
Each side logged one error leading to a goal. Villarreal's finishing edge on raw xG (1.16-0.81) was wiped out by shot quality on target and by a keeper night that leaked more than the model allowed.
Standout Performers
Aubameyang created both of Deportivo's assisted goals and scored the third. Cruz and Eddahchouri took the other two. Pepe opened for Villarreal. Expected assists sat at 1.19-0.46 in Villarreal's favour, which is the gap between building chances and converting the ones that actually hit the net.
What It Means
Deportivo jump to fourth on eight points from four matches. Villarreal sit 16th on two points with six scored and eight conceded. For live soccer on TV viewers, this was a possession match that Deportivo won on finishing and set-piece-style transitions rather than on territory. The 0.35 xG gap is real. The three-goal away haul from eight shots is the story.