Roma Need 2.78 xG and 35 Shots to Edge Atalanta 2-1

Roma spent Saturday night at the Olimpico hunting a goal that the shot sheet said should have arrived much earlier. Gian Piero Gasperini's side posted 2.78 expected goals to Atalanta's 0.78, took 35 shots to six, and still needed Mario Hermoso in the 90th minute to finish a 2-1 win.

Key Numbers

Possession sat at 67-33. Roma completed 520 of 585 passes (89%); Atalanta managed 234 of 297 (79%). Touches in the opposition box ran 67 to 14. Corners were 14-1. xG on target was 1.98 to 0.50.

Roma put 24 of 35 shots from inside the box and hit the woodwork twice. Atalanta's six attempts were all from inside the box. Expected assists: Roma 2.45, Atalanta 0.26. Final-third passing accuracy was 82% (188/228) against 64% (45/70).

The first half already showed the tilt: 1.50-0.06 xG, 18-1 shots, 36-1 box touches. Atalanta still led after Ederson scored in the 47th minute.

Tactical Reading

Roma lined up in a 3-4-1-2. Atalanta, under Maurizio Sarri, used a 4-3-3 and spent the night clearing: 33 clearances to Roma's three, plus 21 goal kicks to four. That is a low-block night, not a territorial contest.

The punchline is efficiency. Atalanta created one big chance and converted Ederson's early second-half strike. Roma created four big chances, nine shots on target and still needed a late centre-back finish. Carnesecchi made nine saves against 1.98 xGOT faced and finished at +0.98 goals prevented.

Gasperini rolled the dice from the 54th minute: Nahuel Molina and Matias Soule, then Daniele Ghilardi and Santiago Castro, then Leonardo Balerdi. Sarri answered with Nikola Krstovic at the break, then Nicola Zalewski, Mario Pasalic, Davide Zappacosta and Franck Kessie. Volume stayed with Roma.

Standout Performers

Hermoso's 90th-minute goal decided a match Roma had already dominated on every attacking metric. Ederson both scored and was withdrawn on 79 minutes. Mile Svilar faced 0.50 xGOT and made one save; the -0.50 goals-prevented figure matches Atalanta scoring from their only real window.

Paulo Dybala started behind the strikers in the 3-4-1-2. Cross accuracy of 17 of 41 (41%) shows how often Roma tried to flood the box rather than play through balls. Neither side recorded an accurate through pass.

What It Means

Roma sit first after three Serie A matches with nine points, 10 goals scored and one conceded. Atalanta are seventh on six points. The 2-1 scoreline understates the chance gap. For live soccer on TV viewers, this was a siege that Atalanta nearly stole on a single transition, then lost when the third wave of Roma crosses finally told.