Real Madrid's 3.46 xG Wasted as Betis Steal 1-0 at La Cartuja

Real Madrid left Estadio de La Cartuja with nothing from a night that the expected-goals table said they should have owned. The visitors posted 3.46 xG, 20 shots and seven big chances. Betis won 1-0 from 0.93 xG after Troy Parrott scored on 81 minutes and Álvaro Valles saved Kylian Mbappé's stoppage-time penalty.

Key Numbers

Final score: Betis 1-0 Real Madrid (0-0 at half-time). Possession 41%-59% Madrid. Shots 10-20, on target 5-8, big chances 1-7, corners 6-10. Pass completion 87% (359/412) versus 92% (536/585). Yellow cards 3-5, including one for José Mourinho.

Madrid created more than three and a half expected goals and converted none of them from open play. The missed penalty in the 90th minute turned a wasteful evening into Madrid's first league loss of the Mourinho tenure.

Tactical Reading

Both teams lined up 4-2-3-1. Madrid controlled territory and passing volume — 585 attempted passes to 412 — with Valverde, Bellingham and Güler connecting the midfield to Vinícius and Mbappé. Chance volume was not the problem. Finishing and a late set-piece concession were.

Manuel Pellegrini's Betis stayed compact, then changed the game from the bench. Parrott and Deossa arrived on 69 minutes. The goal came from a Courtois rebound after a Deossa header from a corner. Madrid had already introduced Silva, Alexander-Arnold and Diomande on 64 minutes; the extra attacking pieces increased shot count without closing the game out.

Natan's foul on Vinícius produced the 90th-minute penalty. Valles saved Mbappé and the kick was not retaken. That sequence is why a 3.46-to-0.93 xG mismatch finished 1-0 to the lower-xG side.

Standout Performers

Troy Parrott, on as a substitute, scored the only goal. Álvaro Valles made the penalty save that preserved it. Madrid's attacking unit — Mbappé, Vinícius, Bellingham, Güler — generated the seven big chances and eight shots on target and still left empty.

Thibaut Courtois was beaten on the rebound that decided the match. The goalkeeper's night sits inside a broader finishing collapse: 3.46 xG with a 0 on the scoreboard until the saved spot-kick.

What It Means

After four LaLiga games Betis and Real Madrid both sit on nine points, Betis third and Madrid second. Barcelona are also on nine. Madrid remain the higher-scoring side (10 goals for, three against) but this was the first reminder that chance volume under Mourinho is not automatically three points.

Betis showed a familiar Pellegrini pattern: absorb, then punish a set piece and a late mistake. For Madrid the data is unambiguous. Twenty shots and seven big chances should bury a home side that created 0.93 xG. They did not. That gap between process and result is the tactical story of Round 4.