Racing Santander Outshot Alaves and Won Anyway. The xG Tells the Story.

Racing Santander Outshot Alaves and Won Anyway. The xG Tells the Story.

Racing Santander beat Deportivo Alavés 2-1 at Estadio El Sardinero on Saturday, but the underlying numbers paint a starkly different picture. Despite winning, Racing were comprehensively second-best in the key creative metrics: expected goals (1.46 to 2.04), total shots (11 to 16), shots on target (4 to 8), and big chances (2 to 4).

The result continues a curious trend this season of Racing defying their analytics. This was the third time in five LaLiga matches that they have won despite losing the xG battle. The question for manager Eneko Capilla is whether this is sustainable luck or a genuine tactical approach that prioritises efficiency over volume.

Key Numbers

The xG gap is stark: Alaves generated 2.04 to Racing’s 1.46, yet only managed one goal from Ville Koski in the 18th minute. Racing’s clinical finishing — they scored from two of their four shots on target — made the difference. Alaves’ 16 total shots included 8 on target and 10 from inside the penalty area, but Racing’s goalkeeper made 7 saves, preventing 1.47 goals.

Possession told part of the story at 57%–43%, but the bigger swing came in shot location: Alaves had 10 shots inside the box to Racing’s 8, and created 4 big chances to Racing’s 2. Racing completed 78% of their passes (353/453) while Alaves managed 75% (250/333). Defensively, Racing won 62 duels to Alaves’ 57 and made 30 clearances.

The Turning Point: Zabiri’s Double

At half-time, Alaves led the xG battle 1.57 to 0.69 and the shot count 8 to 5. But Racing’s Yassir Zabiri scored in the 38th minute to level at 1-1 after a through ball from Inigo Vicente, then added his second in the 53rd minute. From there, Racing’s defense held firm, limiting Alaves to 8 second-half shots and 0.47 xG.

Standout Performers

Yassir Zabiri was the difference-maker with two goals from just 0.69 xG in the first half. His movement between the lines caused Alaves problems all afternoon. Racing’s goalkeeper faced 2.47 xGOT and made 7 saves. For Alaves, Ville Koski scored their only goal, but the team will rue their inability to convert from high-quality positions.

What It Means

Racing Santander move to 9th on 7 points from 5 matches, while Alaves sit 2nd on 10 points from 5. The result keeps Racing in mid-table, but the performance suggests they were fortunate to take all three points against a side that dominated most of the statistical categories.

Alaves will feel they deserved more from a match they dominated in chances created and territorial advantage. Their inability to convert high-quality opportunities is a concern manager Luis Garcia must address.