PSV Beat Ajax 3-1 With 2.43 xG and 29 Box Touches
PSV beat Ajax 3-1 from 2.43 xG, 2.27 xGOT and 29 box touches. Ajax had 1.58 xG, four big chances and more possession.
Published 6 Sept 20262 min read
Ajax and PSV shared 12 shots each in Eredivisie Round 5. They did not share the chance quality. PSV won 3-1 with 2.43 expected goals to Ajax's 1.58 and 2.27 xG on target to 1.15. Possession sat 52-48 for the hosts.
Key Numbers
Box occupancy told the story. PSV recorded 29 touches in the opposition box to Ajax's 16. Shots inside the box were 10-9 to PSV. Expected assists were 1.88-0.77. Pass completion favoured PSV at 87% (347/401) against Ajax's 84% (380/453).
Ajax still created four big chances to PSV's three and won more tackles (70%, 16/23) and interceptions (13-10). Corners were 0-1. PSV collected five yellow cards to Ajax's one. Goalkeepers: Ajax two saves and +0.27 goals prevented against 2.27 xGOT faced; PSV three saves and +0.15 against 1.15.
The first half was nearly even on xG (1.38-1.41) but not on the scoreboard. Ajax took nine shots and four on target before the break. PSV took eight shots, two on target, and led 2-1 at half-time.
Tactical Reading
PSV's 4-2-3-1 started faster. Ricardo Pepi scored in the fifth minute from Ruben van Bommel. Tolu Arokodare equalized in the 23rd. Lutsharel Geertruida headed PSV back in front at 45+1. The headed-goals line finished 1-0 to the visitors.
Ajax's 4-3-3 kept the ball and produced more first-half big chances (4-1). Those chances did not survive the second half. After the interval Ajax took three shots and none on target. PSV added a third goal and kept 10 of 12 total shots inside the box.
Ajax made attacking changes from the 54th minute: Marcos Leonardo, Sofyan Amrabat, Kasper Dolberg and Viktor Tsygankov. PSV closed the game with Sven Mijnans, Esmir Bajraktarevic, Filip Kostic and Ryan Flamingo. Territory, not possession, decided it.
Standout Performers
Pepi opened the scoring. Van Bommel supplied the assist. Arokodare was Ajax's only scorer. Geertruida added the headed goal that flipped the half. Marc-Andre ter Stegen made two saves against a 2.27 xGOT load. PSV's Matej Kovar made three saves.
What It Means
PSV sit first on nine points from three matches (14 scored, 3 conceded), three wins from three. Ajax are eighth on three points from two games (5 scored, 3 conceded). The derby numbers match the table: PSV created higher-value shots and lived in Ajax's box.
For live soccer on TV viewers this was an xG and box-touch mismatch more than a possession mismatch. Ajax had the ball and the first-half chance count. PSV had the xGOT, the headed goal and the 3-1 result.