Almere Made the Better Chances. Dordrecht Made the Scoreboard.

Almere City arrived in Dordrecht sitting second in the Eerste Divisie with 12 points from six games. They left having lost 3-2 to a side 18 places below them, and the shot sheet explains exactly how it happened — and how little of it Almere deserved.

The Quality Went the Other Way

Almere had more of everything that usually decides a match. They held 59% of the ball, outshot Dordrecht 19 to 11, put 15 shots inside the box to Dordrecht's six, and finished 1.84 to 0.91 ahead on expected goals. The chance quality still ended on the home side: Dordrecht's six shots on target carried 2.61 xG on target to Almere's 2.14, because nine of Almere's efforts were blocked before they ever threatened the keeper, against just one blocked at the other end.

Creation lost to conversion everywhere you look. Almere generated 1.57 expected assists to Dordrecht's 0.52 and 30 touches in the opposition box to 17. None of it survived contact with the scoreboard.

Ninety Seconds That Settled It

Olivier de Nijs put the visitors ahead in the 10th minute and Beni Mpanzu levelled on 22. Stan Henderikx, from a Lucas Roman pass, put Dordrecht in front on 58. The finish was the part Almere will replay: Joey Jacobs equalised at 2-2 in the 90th minute, and Ayoub Ouarghi, assisted by Yannis M'Bemba, restored the lead within the same minute of stoppage chaos for 3-2.

The second half had swung hard toward Almere on volume — 16 shots to six, 66% possession, 26 touches in the Dordrecht box, 1.43 second-half xG to 0.45. Dordrecht absorbed it with 28 clearances and nine interceptions after the break and scored twice from the three clear chances they created.

The Keeper Difference

The goalkeeping rows decide close sheets, and this one was not close. Almere's keeper finished at -0.39 goals prevented — beaten more often than the shots on target predicted — while Dordrecht's came in at +0.14. On a night when the visitors' keeper needed to bail out a defence that had conceded the better-placed shots, he did not.

What It Means

Dordrecht, 20th on three points from six, had lost five of their first six before Friday; the win is their first statement of the season against a promotion rival. Almere stay second on 12 points from six, but both of their defeats have now come in matches where the underlying numbers favoured them — a pattern that will concern a side with top-two ambitions.